The Thing Before the Next Big Thing?

Last week our very own Dave Travis brought our attention to Amazon.com's Kindle, which, at the moment, is sold out.   And the device is getting a lot of buzz, with Newsweek featuring Kindle in a cover story in this week's issue and Guy Kawasaki calling it "the iTunes of documents."

The device features

• the ability to buy and read entire books on the device,
• a digital paper display – "a sharp, high-resolution screen that looks and reads like real paper,"
• no required connection to any computer, yet,
• connectivity to amazon.com and other sites using mobile phone technology (no need to find a wireless hotspot),
• access to
  • The New York Times,
  • The Washington Post,
  • The Wall Street Journal,
  • Time,
  • Atlantic Monthly,
  • Forbes,
  • In addition to international newspapers,
• access to top blogs including
  • Slashdot,
  • BoingBoing, and
  • Techcrunch.

As I commented on Dave's post, for a long while I've suggested that two developments that would significantly hasten our move toward a more robust Web 2.0 environment are

1) the development of inexpensive digital paper and

2) ubiquitous wireless connectivity.

If digital paper (or digital paper device)  were commoditized then these two developments could precipitate a significant siphoning of advertising dollars from the currently dominant medium of television to the internet.  That new financial reality would itself prompt a flurry of new Web 2.0 development.  The new development could then have a beneficial trickle-down effect on Joe Consumer and – as a consequence – on Joe and Josephine ChurchLeader. 

Is Kindle the next big thing?   

No, it's not.

It requires users to pay  too much for content.  The new medium would  need to be advertising-based (imo).  Moreover, at $399 it's also way too expensive. 

But I would suggest it holds the promise of the next big thing.  If the screen is as readable as some claim (and let me confess I haven't seen one.  Have you?  Please speak up in comments!) then this technological development itself could represent a significant tipping point toward the new platform we're discussing.   And it's ability to continuously connect to the web meets my second criteria above.

When I was in grade school, a friend of mine's dad bought a $150 calculator that could add, subtract, multiply, and divide.  Kindle is that calculator.  But now look at what calculators that cost a lot less can do.