2009: The Year of ...

Now that 2009 is well underway, I'd like to make a few observations and offer a few predictions.

A quick Google search tells me that 2009 is the year of ...

• Science!
• astronomy (to be a bit more specific)
• affordable telescopes (to be really specific)
• the gorilla
• errr, the shark?
• no, wait, make that the ox
• the "naycation"
• "the designful company"
• the electric car
• change

But this is a tech blog, so let's talk tech, shall we?

Here are the tech headlines that I think we need to be paying attention to in 2009, "the year of":

• mobile computing — I've been reading for a while about the global mobile phone/mobile computing revolution (I even included a section on it in my chapter on "Missions Transformed" in the Wikiklesia book), but now that I have an iPhone, I feel personally connected and empowered by it in a whole new way. We know that mobile phones and text messaging are already huge in other parts of the world, but I think 2009 is the year to start thinking creatively about how to use text messaging and mobile computing for ministry in the North American context. Bobby Gruenewald at LifeChurch agrees. John Saddington at ChurchCrunch isn't quite as sure. Last year, you could've been ahead of the curve by having a fun little Facebook application. In 2009, you'll need to start designing an iPhone version, as well.
• the subject line — One of the first "2009: year of" mentions that I received (in my inbox, appropriately) came from Jeanniey Mullen, chief marketing office for Zinio, who predicts that more and more people will begin accessing email on even other types of devices, including "GPS systems in our vehicles, via MP3s that are not iPhones, inside appliances (like your refrigerator)," etc. I think her prediction about multiple mobile devices is still a few years off (especially in this current economic climate), but her primary point is still valid: As the streams of information begin to flood people's inboxes, RSS readers, Twitter clients, etc., having a good "subject line," blog post title, etc. is going to be crucial for "breaking through the clutter" and getting attention. This is where good writing and having a good reputation (e.g., trust, respect) will be key.
• reputation management — Yes, we're already beginning to see some interesting examples of corporate brands being damaged in record time because of the speed and breadth of social media. Just look at what happened last fall to Motrin. Or yesterday's example of a near-FAIL by Priceline. Churches and ministries need to "go social" (e.g., get a Twitter account, join Get Satisfaction, create a Squidoo lens, etc.) and be able to respond quickly to the questions and concerns (the "chatter") in the Twittersphere, the blogosphere, and beyond. Not only to protect one's identity online, but because, as Beverly Macy writes, "The future is not about technology, it's about people."
• Twitter — This is my own, out-on-a-limb prognostication here, but I believe this will be the year that Twitter either flies or fails. The "fail whale" is scene much less frequently now, but continuing glitches in the system at the beginning of the year, resulting in delayed delivery of "tweets," have kept alive doubts in many users' minds about the reliability of Twitter as a provider of real-time information (a.k.a., the "live Web"). But according to recent statistics, Twitter is growing rapidly with around 5 million users currently, 70% of whom joined in 2008. Granted, 5 million is tiny compared to Facebook's 150 million active users worldwide, but I think Twitter could become "mainstream" in 2009, having established itself as important part of the online eco-system—i.e., the go-to platform for SMS-style, real-time updates (which can be sent directly to mobile devices), update Facebook status, feed directly into blogs, etc. Even if Twitter continues to falter, I don't think it's going to go away. It's more likely to be bought by Google before it goes under. So, you've been sitting on the fence, wondering what this Twitter thing is all about. It's time to jump in and discover what it's all about.

—Steve Knight, Kingdom Journalist and International Communication Coordinator for SIM (Serving In Mission)

Comments

[Kevin D. Hendricks]

I think 2008 was the year of Twitter. They certainly improved and made fail whale sightings rare.

I think 2009 is going to have a continued focus on the economy as people rethink our debt-centric lifestyle. Maybe it'll be the year of living simply. The year of cutting coupons. The year of PB&J! (except for that whole peanut butter recall thing)

[Steve K.]

Thanks for commenting, Kevin! You are a true friend ;-)

Maybe you're right about Twitter already being a "has-been" technology. And yet I can't sink the feeling that it is only going to continue to grow in popularity, widespread acceptance and usage, etc.

While I agree with you about the return to simplicity (and I hope that it truly happens!), I wonder what your more tech-related predictions might be. PB&J is great (except when it sickens you), but what do you see as the biggest technologies for churches in 2009?

[Dave Hunt]

I'd also agree that the big year of Twitter may have been 2008. Twitter has no real business model, or at least no sort of currently-functioning monetization plan and haven't they already turned down a sale to Facebook? (Of course that doesn't mean they won't eventually go through with it. In this economy, sooner or later someone's going to have to pay for all that bandwidth.)

As for 2009, how about another big nail in the coffin of print media? Major newspapers are going bankrupt. I work at a university where economic concerns are leading to a hard examination of the volume of print jobs. And of course there's the "green" angle - using less paper is better for the environment. It seems like this is the worst economy we've had since new media began to really take off, so it will be interesting to see if a weak economy accelerates the growth of new media (it seems like it would have to).

[Steve K.]

Dave, you're right about 2009 being a big year for the decline of print media. I agree with you 100% on that. We're going to see major newspapers really crash and burn, I think.

But I'm going to reiterate that 2009 is going to be a BIG year for Twitter. 2008 was the ramp up, the "early adopter" phase. In 2009, I believe Twitter is really going to become mainstream (and probably end up getting bought by Facebook or Google or someone else along the way).

Why am I saying this? Here's a couple of more points to my argument:

1) Celebrities are Twittering - http://tinyurl.com/ao8ddk

2) Twitter is All the Rage - I went to a BarCamp event this past weekend in Charlotte, NC, attended by 100+ young creatives from around the region. What was the biggest topic of excitement and interest? (besides "making money on the Internet") Twitter. No one (that I talked to anyway) was talking about FriendFeed, there was very little talk about Facebook (that's ubiquitous by now, right?), Ning was talked about a little bit, LinkedIn got a little attention, but TWITTER was the buzz.

These two things, among other things, are what make me think that Twitter has a lot more gas in the tank for 2009.

Here's an interesting defense of churches using social media by Maurilio Amorim: http://is.gd/hiOY

BTW -- I found both of those links from people I follow ... on Twitter!

[Liz]

I would recommend "A New Kind Of Christian" by Brian Mclaren. I think it would challenge them in a unique way.

[Steve K.]

Hey Liz, thanks for your comment. I'm a fan (and friend) Brian McLaren, so I appreciate the recommendation of "A New Kind of Christian." I'm just wondering if you can elaborate a little more on how you see that as being relevant to the whole new technology discussion. I'm a little confused ... :-)